Local authorities in Wales have a duty to ensure provision of an appropriate range and number of school places. There are several aspects to this work, the day to day management of pupil admissions and managing places within the system and also school organisation, rationalisation and removal of surplus places. Local authorities across Wales are currently looking closely at school organisation. This work has been prompted by a number of issues but there are two primary drivers for change; pupil numbers and the condition and suitability of the school estate. These two factors are connected and cannot be addressed in isolation.
Population figures in Wales show that both the total population and birth rate have remained steady over the last 10 years. However, pupil numbers across Wales have fallen significantly over that time, the total number of full time students in Wales in 2000/01 was 486,910 compared to 453,349 in 2008/09. Not surprisingly this fall in pupil numbers was first experienced in the primary sector and is now moving through the system impacting on secondary and post-16 education.
This overall trend masks local and national, population movement and pockets of population increase. In many areas, the population has shifted leaving local schools with significant surplus places and other schools oversubscribed. There is also evidence of population increase in some areas due to inward migration. The decrease in pupil numbers is not occurring uniformly across Wales, local circumstances can be very different.
Falling pupil numbers and shifting populations is creating surplus places within the school system in many areas of Wales. Each local authority uses Welsh Assembly Government methodologies to calculate primary and secondary school capacity, which is then compared to the numbers of pupils on roll to calculate either a surplus or oversubscription. The latest figures show that the total number of unfilled school places is currently 95,027 which is 18.2% of the total number of pupils. 30% of schools in the system have significant surplus places compared to 0.7% of schools which are oversubscribed. The range in surplus places between authorities is significant with some authorities having 25% surplus and others with 11%. It is necessary to have some surplus places to give the system adequate flexibility to respond to fluctuations in pupil numbers.
Many local authorities have published plans outlining how they are going to organise schools in their area. If you want information about plans for an individual local authority, then please visit their website.
For information about investment in school buildings please click on the link to the 21st Century Schools Programme.
For more information contact: Daisy Seabourne